Breeders’ Cup 2014 Picks and Analysis by Casey

Breeders’ Cup 2014 Picks and Analysis by Casey: The Breeders’ Cup is about to come to an end, and with Championships on the line, as they are every year, disputes will be settled, favorites will win or lose, and a possible rising star be emerge from the Juvenile ranks. The Breeders’ Cup is the biggest event in racing, outside of the Kentucky Derby. Stars from all over the United States, and even the world, come to the Breeders’ Cup, dressed in their very best, hoping to catch a piece of the pie. Breeders’ Cup is all about winning, as it is in every horse race, but picking a winner may be harder than one thinks. (see post positions, odds, and post times)

Friday October 31, 2014

Juvenile Turf: 13 Lawn Ranger, 5 Hootenanny, 3 Luck of the Kitten
Lawn Ranger has advanced his career in a short amount of time. Last out, he was the best over a strong field in the Dixiana Bourbon Stakes (G3) at Keeneland. Having already beat Danny Boy, I see no reason he cannot continue to improve. Hootenanny made a lot of noise for Ward over the pond at Ascot this year, and has been working at Keeneland as of late, looking just as good as ever. As I have learned multiple times, never count out the Kittens. Luck of the Kitten should take to the turf, the distance, and the advance in class. Having already won a stakes on the Santa Anita turf, it gives him a slight advantage over his competitors.

Dirt Mile: 1 Goldencents, 9 Tapiture, 4 Pants on Fire
Goldencents has become a completely different horse than he was as a sophomore. As an older horse, he has taken many of the same steps as he did to reach the winners circle at Santa Anita this time last year. He has been working like a monster and we know he loves the track. Tapiture had a bad break in the Kentucky Derby, losing a shoe, but has since then, done well for himself. He won the West Virginia Derby over Candy Boy, and has been working well at Santa Anita. I think this will be his best distance later on his in career. Pants on Fire is having his best season yet. He hasn’t been off the board this year, and is coming into the race off a stakes race at Charles Town. Look for him to be up in the money, as he has been 19 other times in his career.

Juvenile Fillies Turf: 5 Isabella Sings, 4 Lady Eli, 14 Qualify
I am not about to give up on Isabella Sings. She was tough at Woodbine to only finish second to Conquest Harlanate, who is based at Woodbine with Casse. Siena Farms and Todd Pletcher have a special turf filly here. I think the mile will be perfect for her. Lady Eli is coming into the race on a two race win streak, out of two career starts. While I am skeptical of her experience with this full field, I think there is a lot of talent there. Plus, I love the connections. Qualify (IRE) has six starts this year. She last finished ahead of a field at Curragh for Aiden O’Brien. Ryan Moore has the mount, and considering the connections, they are enough to make me love this filly’s chances.

Longines Distaff: 3 Iotapa, 7 Don’t Tell Sophia, 11 Close Hatches
Iotapa caught my eye the first race she ever ran and I’ve never looked back. We know she likes the track and has been tested over the new surface. She will head to Kentucky right after the race to go to the Fasig-Tipton auction. Hoping this is not her swan song. Don’t Tell Sophia has exploded onto the scene as of late, and she is doing it easily. Easily defeating Close Hatches in the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland, Don’t Tell Sophia is coming in in top form. Close Hatches has only lost one race this year, and it was a head scratcher for sure. She seems back to her old self in her works, and she should be the one to beat here.

Saturday, November 1, 2014

Juvenile Fillies: 2 Angela Renee, 3 Danette, 12 By the Moon
Angela Renee was shipped to Santa Anita last out for the Chandelier, which she easily won over Conquest Eclipse and Danette. She remained at Santa Anita with Pletcher to train up to this race. She looks good in the mornings and should be there at the end. Danette is the maiden in which I want to win more than anything. She has the pedigree to demolish pretty much the entire field, but yet to have a maiden score, history is against her. The track may also be against her, as she is a closer. By The Moon is by the late Indian Charlie, who always had very good two-year-olds. By The Moon won the Frizette (G1) in the mud over highly regarded Cavorting, who is skipping this race. I think this filly has what it takes to get the distance.

Filly & Mare Turf: 10 Stephanie’s Kitten, 8 Irish Mission, 2 Just the Judge (IRE)
Stephanie’s Kitten finally broke through again, winning the Flower Bowl (G1) last out. Her breeding suggests this distance is perfect, and she is back to her winning ways. Usually always in the mix, the mare should be there at the end. Irish Mission at the ML odds of 20-1 is a steal. I honestly think she needs MORE distance, but this race should suite her just fine. I will play her across the board if she stays about 10-1. Just the Judge (IRE) is set to sail here. In her last two starts, she has been on the board, winning the latest. She has the breeding and the connections to win this.

Filly & Mare Sprint: 5 Artemis Agrotera, 6 Leigh Court, 1 Sweet Reason
Earlier in the season, references to Artemis Agrotera went as far as to compare her to the legendary Forego. While she is far from Forego, she is a darned good filly. She should dominate this field, as she has been doing lately. I hear her works are good, and she should love the 7 furlongs. Leigh Court won last out easily. She put away Stonetastic easily, who she will be facing again here. I think she will enjoy the extra 1/8 of a mile, and will eat of the ground for a piece of the pie. Sweet Reason has shown that 7 furlongs is perfect for her. Her come from the clouds running style may be her weakness though. Santa Anita has been playing more fair with the new track, but still may favor speed.

Turf Sprint: 1 Reneesgotzip, 6 Bobby’s Kitten, 14 No Nay Never
Reneesgotzip has been in the turf sprint the last two years, and has been close, but has yet to prevail. With Unbridled Note and Mizdirection out of the race, I like her chances. She has been going good this year and working good, and is still as fast as ever. Bobby’s Kitten has been pretty consistent his career. He has never gone shorter than a mine, but never won further than 8.5 furlongs. I think the young son of Kitten’s Joy will enjoy the cut back in distance. No Nay Never is just coming back from injury, and won his last race. I don’t know if he is quit up to par with the likes of these horses yet, but Wesley Ward wouldn’t put him in here if he didn’t believe he wasn’t. That alone gives me confidence in the colt.

Juvenile: 9 Carpe Diem, 10 Mr. Z, 6 Lucky Player
Carpe Diem is coming into this race with a perfect record and a monster race in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. He has the pedigree, the confirmation, and the connections to run away with this race. Mr. Z was second to Carpe Diem in the Breeders’ Futurity and I believe Carpe Diem wasn’t getting beat that day, but Mr. Z was the closest horse to doing just that. I think Mr. Z will take to Santa Anita like a glove and will have a good shot at the top three. Lucky Player was my pick in the Iroquois and he did not disappoint. How he is 30/1 on the morning line baffles me, while the maiden, Calculator is 15/1. Lucky Player has a good shot here.

Turf: 9 Hardest Core, 12 Main Sequence, 7 Flintshire (GB)
I have never been more sure of anything than when I say that Hardest Core is the most fit horse in the entire field. His training methods are abstract and stamina based. Hardest Core will be my only single of the day. Main Sequence is unbeaten since coming to the US, but is that because we have a weaker turf division than those across the pond? Of course it is! I believe Main Sequence can easily hit the board here, but I don’t think he will be the best horse on Saturday. Flintshire (GB) is one of the invading Euro’s, and while he hasn’t won a race this year, he has been close most of the time. He has been second three times in four starts this season. I think he may have seconditis and will need to break through against this group, which may be a tall task.

Sprint: 6 Rich Tapestry (IRE), 8 Palace, 4 Secret Circle
I really liked what I saw from Rich Tapestry (IRE) in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes (G1), where he defeated Goldencents narrowly. He has experience over the track, at the distance, and against top competition. He would be the first Hong Kong entry to win the Sprint. Palace is coming in off a defeat in the Vosburgh, where Private Zone became only the third horse to win the Vosburgh in back to back years. I have been on the Palace bandwagon, and I think that the loss in the Vosburgh is not a problem here. Secret Circle is here to repeat his win from last year. He hasn’t won a race this year, but was third last out. His works have been nice and Baffert brought Secret Circle off of a layoff last year, why not this year?

Mile (Turf): 5 Toronado, 12, Seek Again, 1 Grand Arch
Toronado is here to succeed against the top milers in the world. Only half the horses in the field are bred in Canada or America. The other seven are foreign invaders. Toronado confirmed he would be a presence with the defection of Wise Dan. He is the favorite, and for good reason. Seek Again is hoping to find another graded stakes victory. He didn’t get his shot after being cut off in the Shadwell Turf Mile last out at Keeneland, but with his outside draw, I think it will work to his advantage. Not getting caught on the rail will be the best thing to happen to Seek Again in this race. Grand Arch may be 20/1 on the morning line, but he has spoiled many exactas with his going off at long odds. I am looking for just that!

Classic: 13 California Chrome, 2 Cigar Street, 12 Candy Boy
I am giving California Chrome one more shot. I knew he needed a race, and for that reason, the Pennsylvania Derby didn’t upset me. Sherman even pointed out that Chrome was not tired after the race. I think the outside post is more than perfect for him. He will sit and pounce. I am seeing the Kentucky Derby all over again. Cigar Street is back, and he is back with a vengeance. His bloodlines tie him to the Classic already, but I think he talent will carry him all the way here. His running style is similar to Chrome’s and I think he will sit and pounce as the stretch comes roaring. Candy Boy may or may not have a shot in this field. We know he loves the track, and counting out his bad showing in the Kentucky Derby, has never been worse than fourth. I am looking for him to mess up some trifectas and supers for some people.