Sentiero Italia a Skip for Queen Elizabeth II Bettors
Sentiero Italia a Skip for Queen Elizabeth II Bettors: Sentiero Italia has taken a successful path to the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes (GII), scheduled for this Saturday at Keeneland. With two recent Grade II victories on the resume, and a close fourth to invincible Lady Eli three starts ago, she is the proven class of this field.
Unfortunately for bettors, it is difficult to make a significant amount of money using this kind of horse on top. To reach the next level, bettors need to start thinking about skipping races and exercising patience. Furthermore, with Sentiero Italia’s trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and owner Godolphin Stables behind her, she is bound to attract even more money. Why swallow the low price?
In some cases, the heavy favorite is a false one and bettors rightfully try to play against the horse. At first glance, the Queen Elizabeth II is not one of those races.
Sentiero Italia’s record not only boasts wins, but ones with notable margins for turf racing. She won the Sands Point (GII) at Belmont Park by over three lengths, which might not look imposing for the casual handicapper, but on turf, any win by more than a length is considered a decent amount.
This daughter of Medaglia d’Oro won the Lake Placid (GII) at Saratoga Race Course by just over a length too. Joel Rosario rode her for both wins and takes the call again. Forgive the loss against the freak Lady Eli. No female turf horse is capable of defeating Lady Eli in a normal race.
Some bettors will not skip any race, no matter if the potential reward for the risk is poor. Ask a couple of questions before swallowing the odds on a low single-digit odds favorite such as Sentiero Italia, or trying to beat her. Is it worth the money wagered either way?
Maybe something unforeseen happens, such as a disqualification. In that case, the bettors going against Sentiero Italia will be rewarded. If she suffers from a wide trip or anything else unusual, longshot-players will possibly benefit as well. But, her form just appears rock solid.
Stubborn players could try Feathered, who starts one post to the left of Sentiero Italia’s outside position. At least the connections are strong. Todd Pletcher trains this one, and Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners are listed as the owners. She owns a 4-2-2-0 turf record.
Those searching for double-digit odds should give Olorda, a former European transferred to Chad Brown’s barn, a shot. Sure, this filly ran 11th in the Belmont Oaks Invitational (GI), in the same race Sentiero Italia ran fourth. Lasix and a new training routine might wake her up.
None of the other fillies look too appealing. Miss Temple City also receives Lasix for the first time from trainer Graham Motion, and it could move her forward a few lengths. Several people disagree with the logic of Lasix improving a horse. It is a debatable topic, to say the least.
If needing this race for a horizontal score, then by all means, use Sentiero Italia. If able to afford a larger ticket, throw in Feathered and Olorda. Vertically, this race is much less appealing and just screams “skip” from different angles. Perhaps box those same three fillies and hope Olorda fires.
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes 2015 Post Positions & Odds
Race 9 5:30 PM ET
1 Mizz Money 30-1 Albarado/Flint
2 Prize Exhibit 6-1 Gonzalez/Cassidy
3 Miss Temple City 5-1 Van Dyke/Motion
4 Her Emmynency 8-1 Geroux/Stidham
5 Return to Grace 15-1 Rocco, Jr./Casse
6 Olorda 15-1 Ortiz, Jr./Brown
7 Blond Me 8-1 Alvarado/Balding
8 Feathered 5-1 Castellano/Pletcher
9 Sentiero Italia 6-5 Rosario/McLaughlin