Cupid Draws Wide for Arkansas Derby

Cupid Draws Wide for Arkansas Derby: Rebel Stakes (GII) winner Cupid returns for the $1 million Arkansas Derby on Saturday at Oaklawn Park. He comes into this race as the favorite, although a few minor obstacles may test the son of Tapit.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Cupid currently owns two wins and one second-place finish out of four starts. A familiar group of names owns the colt, including Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier and Derrick Smith.

Cupid jumped into the Kentucky Derby Point Standings with an authoritative win in the Rebel. Like many popular and talented Baffert-trained horses before him, he went to the lead and stayed there, pulling away towards the end after Whitmore attempted to challenge at the top of the stretch. Visually, the run seemed impressive.

Yet, some handicappers poked holes in Cupid’s win. While his opening quarter of 22.96 seconds according to Equibase appears fast, after the four-furlong marker he got away with a leisurely 25 seconds on an uncontested lead. The trip looked reminiscent of how the famous Game On Dude won most of his races for Baffert.

Before the Rebel, Cupid proved his ability to rate at Santa Anita Park when breaking his maiden on Feb. 7. Jockey Martin Garcia settled him in fourth early, two lengths off the pace, before Cupid made his move around the turn and pulled away by over five lengths. This race demonstrates Cupid can rate, which gives Garcia some options.

In fact, the only true weakness might be the slow-breaking habit, which might hurt from the tenth post position. Garcia really had to ask Cupid from the moment the gate opened in the Rebel in order to establish position. At Santa Anita, Cupid bobbled at the start. If anyone can fix this small flaw, it is a Triple Crown-winning trainer.

Baffert commented on Cupid’s tardiness for the Oaklawn press release.

“We really got lucky last time. He can’t be doing that this time,” Baffert said. “He has to leave there with the field. He needs to get away from there a little bit better. He’s never really broken really good for some reason.”

Otherwise, Baffert sounds enthusiastic about the race this weekend and stretching out his horse.

“He’s definitely shown that he’s not a sprinter. He’s come around quickly since January and matured a lot,” he explained.

Any contender looking to win this race must hope Cupid misfires.

If an upset occurs, Creator might be the one to pull off the victory from behind. Also a son of Tapit, this runner closed all the way from 10 lengths back in the Rebel to finish third. Steve Asmussen trains Creator for WinStar.

From the fifth post position, American Pioneer will also establish a good position early with his tactical speed for trainer Wayne Catalano, and Gary and Mary West. The upside is there, as he makes only his third career start.

Next to him, Unbridled Outlaw goes into the Arkansas Derby off a second-place finish in an optional claimer. Last year, he showed a bit of promise in the Iroquois (GIII) by placing third after a troubled trip.

In post seven, Dazzling Gem also offers bettors a bit of intrigue after running third in the Louisiana Derby.

For underneath slots, bettors need to consider Whitmore too, as he ran second in the Southwest and Rebel Stakes. He still searches for his first victory at a route distance, but turned in decent efforts both times.

Baffert rarely loses at Oaklawn Park with three-year-old horses preparing for the Kentucky Derby (GI). As long as Cupid breaks cleanly and secures a good spot around the first turn, the gray colt will continue Baffert’s good fortunes in Arkansas and make even more fans fall in love with him heading into Churchill Downs on May 7.

Arkansas Derby 2016 Post Positions & Odds
Race 11 6:28 PM CT
1 Discreetness 20-1 Court/Fires
2 Cutacorner 50-1 Birzer/Van Berg
3 Creator 10-1 Santana, Jr./Asmussen
4 Suddenbreakingnews 5-1 Quinonez/Von Hemel
5 American Pioneer 8-1 Bejarano/Catalano
6 Unbridled Outlaw 10-1 Lanerie/Romans
7 Dazzling Gem 12-1 Talamo/Cox
8 Whitmore 9-2 Ortiz, Jr./Moquett
9 Luna de Loco 30-1 Bravo/Asmussen
10 Cupid 2-1 Garcia/Baffert
11 Gray Sky 30-1 Vazquez/Lukas
12 Gettysburg 6-1 Velazquez/Pletcher