Handicapping Kentucky Oaks Day 2016 Picks & Plays

Handicapping Kentucky Oaks Day 2016 Picks & Plays by Sigi Mendoza: The most anticipated weekend in U.S. racing is finally here! Although people are often more excited about the Kentucky Derby card, the Kentucky Oaks and its undercard on Friday are composed of quality fields. Below is an easy guide for those who want to enjoy the day and make some plays on Oaks day stakes races.

La Troienne Stakes – Grade I
6) 2, 1
Sheer Drama made her 2016 season debut in the Madison (GI) on April 16 at Keeneland. Although the distance was a bit short for her, Sheer Drama was able to chase the fast pace and beat Stopchargingmaria by a neck. This time, Sheer Drama should appreciate the stretch out to 1-1/16 miles, and according to her last workout, she looks ready to win another Grade I stakes. Sheer Drama is the likely winner of the race, but if you expect a regression and want to beat her, Curalina is an option because Pletcher trainees usually fire fresh.

Eight Belles Stakes – Grade II
7) 5
Carina Mia enters the Eight Belles because she did not earn enough points to make the Kentucky Oaks, although she has the quality to run there. Carina Mia’s 2016 debut was delayed due to the Payson Quarantine, a thing that hurt her chances to make the Oaks. She finally ran in the Ashland (GI) and sat off the pace only to fade a bit in the stretch and finish fourth, just 2½ lengths behind winner Weep No More. Now, the filly is working very nicely and is running with lasix added. I’m using Carina Mia as a single in all my plays.

Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes – Grade III
8) 3, 1, 2, 12
In a very wide open race, I’m looking for a longshot, especially because there’s a lot of speed in the race. Mogol Bull has some good races against good runners like Mongolian Saturday and No Nay Never. He is returning from a six-month layoff, but he can fire fresh and steal the race at big odds. Power Alert is a specialist at the distance with a nice record of 6 wins out of 11 starts at this distance. He won this race last year. Summation Time is another horse who could take advantage of a hot pace. Javier Castellano stays in the saddle, which is a good sign. I’m also adding Guns Loaded because he improved and turned into a nice runner after being claimed by Doug O’Neill. This will be his acid test, though.

Alysheba – Grade II
9) 5, 4
Noble Bird lost by only a neck in the Alysheba last year where he registered one of the best speed figures of his career. He likes the Churchill Downs track, and the distance is perfect for his running style. He should improve in his third race of the layoff, so he is definitely the horse to beat. His main rival is Eagle, the horse who beat him last time.

Edgewood –GIII
10) 10
Catch a Glimpse is unbeaten over the turf. In fact, she only lost her debut at Saratoga b because her intended turf race was moved to the dirt. If nothing strange happens, this filly should continue her winning streak. Catch a Glimpse’s odds should be very low, but in my opinion, this is not a race to look for value.

Kentucky Oaks
11) 2, 11, 13
Weep No More upset everyone in the Ashland Stakes (GI) over 1-1/16 miles at Keeneland when she came from the clouds and beat favorites Cathryn Sophia, Rachel’s Valentina, and Carina Mia. That was an impressive late run for Weep No More, and this time she should appreciate the stretch out to 1-1/8 miles. I’m betting her Ashland performance was not a fluke. Rachel’s Valentina was making her 2016 season debut in the Ashland Stakes, so we can blame her for her tiredness in the stretch. She likely needed that race. We can’t miss any play with Land Over Sea, the eternal runner-up to the amazing Songbird, especially after her romp in the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII).

Kentucky Oaks Day 2016 Picks & Plays

Pick 3
6) 2, 1
7) 5
8) 3, 1, 2, 12

Pick 3
7) 5
8) 3, 1, 2, 12
9) 5, 4

Trifecta box
11) 2, 11, 13

Related Links:
Kentucky Oaks 2016 Odds and Post Positions
2016 Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Positions