Preakness Picks 2016 (Rain Expected)
Preakness Picks 2016 (Rain Expected) by Reinier Macatangay: Prepare for rain this weekend at Pimlico Race Course, when the track holds the Preakness Stakes (GI) for 3-year-old horses and other graded stakes races on Saturday in Baltimore, Md. Some handicappers avoid rainy days altogether, while others cannot wait to use their Tomlinson Ratings or other angles for the sloppy track.
Nothing tops experience when it comes to off-track handicapping. Numbers can only give a handicapper another man’s opinion because the figure remains tied down to a formula. Just handicap long enough and it will become clear if mud races are workable, or if they will become a terrible nightmare.
Since less bettors actually prefer the sloppy track, anyone able to figure out the mess will be ahead in this game.
Race 5 (12:51 p.m.) – Maryland Sprint H. (GIII)
Unfortunately for value handicappers, the expected favorite Salutos Amigos (1-1) owns a 7 for 7 record on wet dirt. Always Sunshine (7-2) looks second best on paper, but the exacta will not get anyone’s heart racing. For what it is worth, the TimeformUS Pace Projector believes the race will favor those on or near the lead.
If determined to play this race with longshots, find a way to involve Sonny Inspired (10-1) and Rockinn On Bye (15-1).
Race 6 (1:28 p.m.) – James W. Murphy S.
What a mess of a race this will be on wet turf. If the race stays on turf, Conquest Windycity (5-1) tends to post high late-pace figures and turf expert Jose Lezcano rides. Late-pace numbers take higher importance on grass.
Race 7 (2:04 p.m.) – Allowance
Tricky race. Chief Istan (7-5) will win if he returns to form off the layoff. The TimeformUS Power Picks likes Troubled Waters (6-1). Three starts ago, Gin Makes Ya Sin (15-1) defeated Troubled Waters. Consider those three horses.
Race 8 (2:40 p.m.) – The Very One S.
Oh no, a five-furlong turf sprint! Side with Lady Shipman (3-5) and move on to the next race.
Race 9 (3:21 p.m.) – Chick Lang S.
While Justin Squared (9-5) may run off and wire this field for trainer Bob Baffert and owner Zayat Stables, Never Gone South (8-1) and Counterforce (5-2) are viable alternatives. Discreet Angel (12-1) looks like a wild card choice, with no races to show in North America and no speed figures to analyze. Most of his wins are by large margins.
Race 10 (4:02 p.m.) – Galorette S. (GIII)
Tiger Ride (7-2) certainly exits the best race after finishing sixth in the Jenny Wiley (GI) at Keeneland against Tepin. Critics may point to how she lost by nine lengths, but the waters appear shallow in this spot and she should handle these. For a second pick, consider Josdesanimaux (4-1) and Lezcano, who will give her a good ride.
Race 11 (4:40 p.m.) – LARC Sir Barton S.
American Freedom (5-2) disappointed in the Pat Day Mile (GIII) at Churchill Downs last time. Pace figures from TimeformUS also suggest the colt was compromised on the front end, with Sharp Azteca the only speed horse surviving the pace. Donegal Moon (8-1), Dazzling Gem (5-2) and Gettysburg (5-1) are logical alternatives.
For some mega-longshots, think about the two Malibu Moon colts Cadeyrn (15-1) and Moon King (15-1).
Race 12 (5:39 p.m) – Dixie S. (GII)
What a difficult race. Out of the main choices, maybe RIng Weekend (9-2) overcomes the layoff and wins? Prince Gagarin (15-1) attracts Javier Castellano as his rider and won a Keeneland allowance race, although the speed figure appears low. Turf speed figures are less reliable for selecting winners than dirt (arguable point).
Lezcano picks up the mount on Conquest Typhoon (15-1). Plenty of longshots are here for value bettors.
Race 13 (6:45 p.m.) – Preakness S. (GI)
As a previous article explained, pace logic and history favor Nyquist. The value, if any exists, will come from trying to eliminate Exaggerator (3-1) from the second slot. The outside post is not ideal, but Stradivari (10-1) might fill the runner-up position if he simply duplicates his effort at Keeneland where he ran a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure.
Trifecta and superfecta players might want to throw in Fellowship (30-1), who will be ignored at the windows.
Preakness Stakes Odds & Post Positions 2016
Race 13 6:45 p.m. ET
1 Cherry Wine 20-1 Lanerie/Romans
2 Uncle Lino 20-1 Perez/Sherlock
3 Nyquist 3-5 Gutierrez/O’Neill
4 Awesome Speed 30-1 Toledo/Goldberg
5 Exaggerator 3-1 Desormeaux/Desormeaux
6 Lani 30-1 Take/Matsunaga
7 Collected 10-1 Castellano/Baffert
8 Laoban 30-1 Geroux/Guillot
9 Abiding Star 30-1 Acosta/Allard
10 Fellowship 30-1 Lezcano/Casse
11 Stradivari 8-1 Velazquez/Pletcher