Del Mar Picks For Saturday, August 30, 2014
Del Mar Picks For Saturday, August 30, 2014: Last Saturday, August 23rd, we handicapped two races. We tackled the 75th Running of the Del Mar Handicap, which is part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series “Win and You’re In”, with the winner earning a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Turf to be held on Saturday, November 1st at Santa Anita Park. At a 1 3/8 miles on the turf, Mike Smith aboard favorite Big John B,seized the lead turning for home to win by 5 ¼ lengths and earned himself a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Turf that is run at 1 1 /2 miles. He was my top pick for that race and one of Sigi’s picks as well to hit. Sigi’s top two scratched, so who knows what would have happened had they run. My $6 Daily Double wager hit for $25.40, a little chalky but still a win.
We also capped the Ballerina Stakes for 3-year-old fillies for a berth in the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, also to be ran Saturday, November 1st at Santa Anita. The win went to Artemis Agrotera in a blow-out fashion by a seemingly easy 6 1/2 lengths. She was amazing and Sigi tabbed her for the win as well as hitting with money to win and place on her. I had Hot Stones, Artemis Argotera and La Verdad in the first leg of a Daily Double but missed the second leg. Hot Stones finished last and La Verdad was third. We both missed our big plays, mine being the pick 4 and Sigi’s a daily double; however, it was a nice day of capping for our article, picking the winners of both stakes races.
This weekend we are tackling four races at Del Mar: Race #3 the Harry F. Brubaker Stakes, Race #6 Maiden Special Weight for 2 year-old fillies, Race #9 Del Mar Debutante (GI) for 2 year-old fillies and Race #10 Maiden Special Weight for 2 year-old colts. These baby races can be tough, so let’s get started with our picks and plays.
Race #3: Harry F. Brubaker Stakes – One Mile on the All Weather Track: (1), 2
I’m going with the #1 Blue Tone, son of Birdstone, for the win. He’s moving up in class from his last start, where he won on August 3rd going 1 mile on this track beating out Alpha Bullet. He gets Desormeaux up again, who has been really hot at this meet, and a hot trainer/jockey combo from the Robert Hess barn. He’ll fire fast from post #1. Secondly I’m going with the old guy here Drill. Baffert is 27% from dirt to the all-weather and he is dropping in class today. So with the class relief and Espinoza up, I hope he hits the board at okay odds from post #2.
*For a horse with the best value, I’d go with Sigi’s pick the #6 Safety Belt if the odds stay around 5-1 or higher post time. He’ll possibly be the best shot for the money in this race.
Race #6: Maiden Race for Fillies 5 1/2 F: (8) 6, 1
I’m going with a Mark Casse day here and the Conquest Stable runners. I like #8 Conquest Archangel to jump-off the seconditis bus here. Has the second best speed figure of the group so I hope she fires a big one, even though her post isn’t the greatest, with Espinoza up again. Secondly I like #6 Bennett Jean with the redhot trainer/jockey combo of Ted West and Tyler Baze. She’s coming off a short layoff but has the fastest first out time of 94 and 33% second career race trainer standings. She’s ready to roll. The daughter of Congrats (A.P. Indy) the #1 Call To Congrats ran second last out and gets a jockey switch to Rafael Bejarano and exits the rail, which is winning at a 22% clip at this distance. She has a nice recent 5f work and will be ready to run.
Race #9: Del Mar Debutante (G1) 7 F on the All Weather for 2-year-old Fillies: (3), 8, 4
Sunset Glow is the impressive winner wire-to-wire of the Sorrento Stakes at Del Mar recently. She will have to beat me Saturday. Taking a stand against the speed in here and going with a few flying later. I really dig the #3 Starlet O’Hara with the Baffert/Garcia combo. Her first maiden race she was jumpy in the gate, off slow and came flying for second. Last out she won at Del Mar a month ago and worked a nice 5f in 1:00 recently. She’s moving up in class and frankly my peeps, I don’t give a damn. Casse is sending in a fantastic gal with #8 Conquest Eclipse, a Malibu Moon filly, who won first-out at Churchill on the dirt. Casse is 28% dirt to all-weather surface and she has been off 2 months; however, she has some nice recent works on this track. The #4 Dad’s Princess gets Mike Smith up, was third first time out behind Manahatta, who is running here, as well as Windy Forecast. I’m looking for her to turn the tables on them.
Race #10: Maiden Race for 2-year old-colts going 1 mile on the All Weather: (6), 5, 1
I’m digging the Candy Ride baby here to route #6 Selection from the Proctor barn with Van Dyke in the irons. Only one in the field I can find that has a work at a mile and recent nice 4f work as well. Ready to romp. Another first time starter I like is the #5 Conquest Hiosilver for Casse who gets “Smokin Joe” riding. Has a very nice pedigree out of Majesticperfection (Harlan’s Holiday) and his dam has 4 winners from 8 starters with 1 stakes winner. Hi Ho Silver away! Stellar Act from post #1 has the hot brother trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days with Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux leaving from the rail. At a mile, the rail is winning at 18% and Keith is pretty good going from sprint to route. Stellar Act was edged first time out at 6 furlongs for second and should show more speed from this post. **If there are any scratches from Race #10, I’ll be using One Lucky Dane and/or Daddy DT and will tweet my new play. Check twitter for updates.
I’m staying away from wagering Race #3 as that is a sentimental pick for me. It’s a small field and the odds will be short. I really like Drill to pull the upset as he hasn’t won in 2 years and will be tickled pink if he does. Blue Tone will be hard to beat so I’ll be watching only. If I did wager that race, I would do win/place on #6 Safety Belt. Sigi and I had him at 11-1 odds two races ago and hit the pick 3. He could be very live if the price is decent.
$1 Pick 3: Race #4 1/4,6,7/1,6,8 $9.00
$2 Daily Double Race #5: 6/1,6,8 $6.00
$2 Daily Double Race #9: 3,4,8/6,5 $12.00
* I would suggest if there are any you really like in one race to do a small win/place on that horse. $4.00 to win and $6.00 to place.
Race #3: 1,6
Blue Tone is the horse to beat, especially because he likes the poly and he’s facing some turf horses in this race. Despite the move up in class, he has a good post position, and looks like he’ll try to win this race gate to wire. He’s a very good horse. Safety Belt is the type of horse that can run in turf and the dirt. His performance in the poly is unknown, but he’s a versatile horse, so you can expect a huge effort.
Race #6: 5,6,8
Daphne’s Day showed early speed in her debut, but faded in the stretch. Since that effort she’s working steadily and now with a race under her belt, she will be very tough playing “come and catch me”. Bennet Jean was second in her debut; and recorded a great speed figure. Looks like she needs more ground, but she’s working very well, and looks ready to fire. Conquest Archangel last race was pretty good, behind the promising filly Luminance. She doesn’t have the best post position, but if she duplicates her last effort, she will be in the mix.
Race #9: 5,2,8
Sunset Glow looked awesome in the Sorrento (G2), winning gate to wire. Despite that the field was short, she showed potential. Her trainer Wesley Ward is also doing well with 2 years old horses. Manahatta is another speedy filly who won in her debut gate to wire. Looks like she is now in better shape, and Rafael Bejarano stays in the irons. She will be very tough in sprint races. If the pace turns hot, Conquest Eclipse could be benefit. This time she should be able to stalk the pace and win this race if the front runners fade.
Race #10: 6,9
The Candy Ride colt Selection was a bit slow at the start in his debut at a short distance for him. Now he’s going to run at a mile which is a distance he should appreciate. Gem Twist is bred to go to turns and his mare produced good runners. His works are just ok, so we expect a good effort for this son of Mizzen Mast.
Seve’s Road is the experienced horse of the field and he improved in his last race, the first time he ran two turns. **Seve’s Road Scratched. Check twitter for updated plays.
Pick 3 starting in race# 4
Daily Double starting in race #9:
9) 5,2,8 10) 6,9
*Side Note: As far as trainer and jockey standings, there are seven racing days left in the meet and Jerry Hollendorfer has a 4 win lead over Peter Miller. Mike Smith had 4 wins Sunday, moving him closer to Rafael Bejarano (26 wins), within 2 in the jockey standings. Smith (24 wins) has been riding considerably fewer mounts than Bejarano and shouldn’t be counted out to win the meet. Smith is tied with jockeys Kent Desormeaux (24) and Elvis Trujillo (24).
Good luck to all of the runners this weekend and hope everyone scores big! Thanks Sigi for your picks and plays. Let’s make some money!