Kentucky Derby 2016 Odds Favor Mohaymen, Nyquist
Kentucky Derby 2016 Odds Favor Mohaymen, Nyquist: Wagering for Kentucky Derby 142 Pool 2 closed on Sunday, and unsurprisingly, “All Others” remained the betting favorite at 5-2. Mohaymen took up the role of second choice at 4-1, and Nyquist came third in betting at 7-1. Pool 2 offered 23 individual selections, and horses not on the list count as part of the mutuel field.
Pool 3 and Pool 4 (scheduled for March 11-13, April 1-3) will provide more opportunities for early Derby wagering. In addition, the Kentucky Oaks has its own pool coming next month (March 11-13).
Win and exacta wagering are available. The minimum amount for each type of bet is $2.
Bettors might not understand the concept of a future book wager. If horse racing fans ever visit Las Vegas, they will notice that a few sportsbooks give the chance to make early bets on the May 7 Kentucky Derby at fixed odds. Not wanting to be left out, Churchill Downs began offering future Derby wagering available through online wagering.
Because Mohaymen closed at 4-1 on Sunday, those who bet Mohaymen to win receive those odds on Derby Day, no matter if live betting brings his odds lower than 4-1. Some readers might think “well that is no big deal to get 4-1 instead of 3-1.” The advantage comes when bettors pick a longshot that improves over the spring.
For example, Gift Box closed at 59-1 in Pool 2 without racing this year. He finished third in the Remsen (GII) last fall against established Derby contenders Mohaymen and Flexibility. If Gift Box goes on a tear and wins some Derby prep races, or runs well in them, his odds during the Kentucky Derby might drop much lower than 59-1.
Similarly, the exacta will-pays remain fixed. If someone bets a Gift Box over “All Others” exacta in Pool 2, it is supposed to pay $664 for $2. The bettor receives a $664 payoff if the exacta hits, regardless of the wagering on Derby Day. Payoffs for the exacta wagers go into the four and five-digit territories for longshot combinations.
Considering Mutuel Field or “All Others” can mean a lot of talented horses not in the news yet, this strategy has its advantages. Zenyatta’s son Ziconic, who may start soon, is not on the Pool 2 list and therefore counts as “All Others” for Pool 2. If he breaks his maiden at first asking, they may place him as an individual option for Pool 3.
The extra risks of wagering this early must be understood as well. If Gift Box wins a prep race and becomes injured soon after the race, it might be frustrating because no refunds are allowed.
According to a press release, “No scratches or refunds of wagers are permitted in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. If it is determined during any KDFW pool that a wagering interest will not be able to participate in the Kentucky Derby, wagering on that interest will be suspended immediately.”
Handicapping whether the horse even makes the Derby is part of the challenge in making a future book wager. For this reason, picking connections who are more likely to enter the Derby becomes important. Studying interviews with trainers and owners makes a difference in determining their intentions.
Notice how Sunny Ridge, winner of the Withers Stakes (GIII), was left out of the Pool 2 list. The connections are a bit hesitant to say their horse is going on to the Derby, and oddsmaker Mike Battaglia probably realized this.
In the end, these wagers are more about staying involved as the Kentucky Derby draws near. Handicapping a race without knowing the exact field and post positions is difficult for any handicapper, beginner or experienced. Then again, the chance for a major score is there, if bettors can take advantage of the fixed odds.
Kentucky Derby 2016 Odds