Speed Figures Indicate Cathryn Sophia Is Superior To Songbird
Speed Figures Indicate Cathryn Sophia Is Superior To Songbird: When we can’t trust our eyes to make a determination, we use numbers. Numbers equal statistics and statistics are as close to actual facts as we can achieve, when we are faced with hypothetical scenarios. Such a scenario has arisen with top two Kentucky Oaks prospects Cathryn Sophia and Songbird.
Both fillies are unbeaten and both are unchallenged. One is based in Florida, while the other is based in California, making it very difficult to determine which is best. Typically, when trying to decipher who is superior handicappers use time, such as final time or individual fractions. That will not work in this case, as anyone with experience knows that comparing times from track to track is not always accurate, especially when the tracks are at opposite sides of the country. Secondly, the two fillies are still very evenly matched, in that department. The fact that both have never been pushed in their races also makes comparing times useless.
With time going out the window, the only tools left to compare the two with are speed figures. In that area, Cathryn Sophia begins to prove the better of the two. The three most widely used Speed figures in America are Beyer Speed Figures, Equibase Speed Figures, and Brisnet Figures. When we put each filly’s best figures, at a respective distance, side by side we get a better idea as to whom has run faster at a particular distance.
Currently, the longest distance Cathryn Sophia has run over is one mile, which came in her most recent start, the Davona Dale. Songbird has been longer, but for the sake of comparison we will only look at the numbers earned this year over distances that each filly has covered. Fortunetly, Songbird ran the one mile Las Virgines, where she earned a 102 Equibase figure, an 87 Beyer Speed figure, and a 95 Brisnet Speed Figure. In the Davona Dale, Cathryn Sophia earned a higher figure in all but one category, and that was her Equibase figure, a 98. Her other figures came back higher, with Beyer assigning her a 98, and Brisnet designating her a 96.
Again, after looking at these numbers we are left with uncertainty. Yes, they show that Cathryn Sophia is the better of the two, but only by a narrow margin. Couple that with the fact that both have yet to be extended and we are right back at square one. However, when you dig deeper, going beyond the most commonly used figures, to figures such as Thoro-Graph, you get a much more definitive answer.
Thoro-Graph isn’t use nearly as much as the top three figures because they are more expensive than most are willing to pay, but there is a reason for that….they are more detailed. They factor in not only final time and track variant, but ground loss, weight carried, and the effects of wind on the final time. These extra details give handicappers a more accurate read on a race. It is here where it is revealed that Cathryn Sophia is not just a small margin better, but lengths better.
After the Las Virgines, Thoro-Graph gave Songbird a 3 ¾, a number that matched her career best. They also noted that she may have not been fully extended, letting us handicappers know that she could have gone faster if asked. That type of number should be hard to match, especially when you consider that she could have gone faster, but it was topped. In the Davona Dale, Cathryn Sophia was given a figure of ½ , and for those that don’t know Thoro-Graph, the lower the number, the faster the horse. Cathryn Sophia also was given the notation that signified that she may not have been fully extended.
Here, with Thoro-Graph, a likely truth is shown. Based on these figures, Cathryn Sophia is not only marginally better, but about 3 ¼ lengths better. In fact, these figures indicate that Cathryn Sophia is not only better than Songbird, but better than Mohaymen, favorite for the Kentucky Derby! His Fountain of Youth was given an impressive speed figure of 1, which is still half a point slower than Cathryn Sophia.
Are numbers the be all end all to racing? The answer is no, they aren’t. What they are, however, are very useful tools in deciphering who the best in the lot really is, when there is nothing else to use. I have been saying for a long while that I believe Cathryn Sophia is the superior of the two. Now, I have one of the most detailed speed figures in the game to back that belief up.