Kentucky Derby 2016 Picks and Odds

Kentucky Derby 2016 Picks and Odds by Sigi Mendoza: The most anticipated day in U.S. racing has arrived, Kentucky Derby day. Besides the Run for the Roses, there are some interesting stakes races on the card that will make Derby day simply unforgettable. Here’s a quick analysis of the Derby day stakes for those who want to enjoy the races and make some economic plays on Saturday, May 7, 2016.

Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes – Grade II
6) 1
I’m not wasting too many lines analyzing Tepin’s chances. She is a superstar, and this race should be a paid workout for her. Tepin is one of the few American horses that can be competitive in Europe in turf races, so against this field, she will offer zero value. I recommend just enjoying Tepin’s performance.

Churchill Downs Stakes – Grade II
7) 8, 3
Salutos Amigos is in great shape and drew a very good post position for this race. He would appreciate a hot pace, and, indeed, there are a lot of speedy horses in the race. I’m probably a bit biased towards this horse since I love his dam, Sarasota, but all signs indicate that he has a great shot to win. I’m only adding Calculator because he didn’t want to lose in his last race where Salutos Amigos beat him by only a head. The horse is working nicely and just needs a clean break to be a real threat.

Humana Distaff Stakes – Grade I
8) 8
Taris is cutting back to seven furlongs, a distance where she does her best runs. She got a very good post position and looks sharp for this race. It seems she learned to relax early, so she’ll not necessarily be involved in a pace duel. She is the class of the field and the one to beat.

American Turf Stakes – Grade II
9) 8, 11, 6, 12
It looks like the “easy to handicap” races are over, so it’s time to navigate into deeper waters. Shakimat is a son of the Australian stallion Lonhro who has been producing some solid runners in North America. Shakimat started his career at Woodbine in Canada, getting a nice record of 2 wins in 3 starts at two years old with his only defeat in the turf. However, Shakimat dispelled all doubts about his turf skills after he romped in the Transylvania Stakes (GIII) at Keeneland. He has the early speed to try to win gate-to-wire, but it will not be an easy task. Dressed in Hermes tried to get on the Derby Trail, but he is definitely a turf horse since all his best races have been over that surface. If you look back at his past performances, you would notice a huge effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (GI). Also, his workouts are really impressive. J R’s Holiday is always in the mix and could take advantage of a hypothetical pace duel. The new sensation rider in Florida, Emisael Jaramillo, stays in the saddle. Surgical Strike could be the longshot everybody is looking for. The switch to a more competitive rider in Luis Saez could be the key of success for this horse.

Pat Day Mile Stakes – Grade III
10) 9, 7, 6, 5
Fellowship was on the bubble waiting for Derby defections. None have occurred yet, so he is entered in the Pat Day Mile instead. He has been working nicely, and honestly I prefer him in one-mile races. Forevamo, another horse who failed to make the Derby, is cutting back to one mile. He has a win and a second place in two starts over the distance. Sharp Azteca is likely to be sent to wire this field. This will be his acid test, but he is improving, and we don’t know his limits yet. Imperial Hint is moving up in class, but he looks like the real deal. He was facing weaker fields in Tampa, though.

Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes – Grade I
11) 10
This is a wide open race, but I’m choosing just one horse. Tourist is stretching out to 1-1/8 miles, a distance I think he should appreciate because he will be able to relax a bit early, something he wouldn’t do in his last races over one mile. There are plenty of tough runners, highlighted by Big Blue Kitten and Slumber, both returning from a six-month layoff. It is a risky single, but I’m confident that Tourist will run huge this time.

Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands -GI
12) 13, 17, 2, 5
This time I’m only throwing out some quick thoughts about the 142nd Kentuky Derby. For extended info, read here. Nyquist is the deserving favorite, and it will be very tough to catch him. Nobody knows if he can get the distance, but he is a win machine and is still undefeated. Although Mor Spirit drew the 17-hole, he should love the Derby distance. He lacks acceleration, but his even pace should work over 1¼ miles. Suddenbreakingnews is a closer, so his inside post probably won’t hurt him. If the pace collapses, he will have a shot to win. The traffic could be a problem, but the closers must deal with it. Gun Runner’s speed figures are a bit slow to win the Derby, but he is training like a big boy at Churchill Downs. He has also shown professionalism in his races and never has trip troubles.

Kentucky Derby 2016 Picks and Odds

Pick 3
7) 8, 3
8) 8
9) 8, 11, 6, 12

Daily Double
10) 9, 7, 6, 5
11) 10
In the Kentucky Derby, I’m playing Mor Spirit to win-place-show.

Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Positions 2016
Race 12 6:34 p.m. ET
Horse-Odds-Jockey-Trainer
1 Trojan Nation 50-1 Gryder/Gallagher
2 Suddenbreakingnews 20-1 Quinonez/Von Hemel
3 Creator 10-1 Santana, Jr./Asmussen
4 Mo Tom 20-1 Lanerie/Amoss
5 Gun Runner 10-1 Geroux/Asmussen
6 My Man Sam 20-1 Ortiz, Jr./Brown
7 Oscar Nominated 50-1 Leparoux/Maker
8 Lani 30-1 Take/Matsunaga
9 Destin 15-1 Castellano/Pletcher
10 Whitmore 20-1 Espinoza/Moquett
11 Exaggerator 8-1 Desormeaux/Desormeaux
12 Tom’s Ready 30-1 Hernandez, Jr./Stewart
13 Nyquist 3-1 Gutierrez/O’Neill
14 Mohaymen 10-1 Alvarado/McLaughlin
15 Outwork 15-1 Velazquez/Pletcher
16 Shagaf 20-1 Rosario/Brown
17 Mor Spirit 12-1 Stevens/Baffert
18 Majesto 20-1 Jaramillo/Delgado
19 Brody’s Cause 12-1 Saez/Romans
20 Danzing Candy 15-1 Smith/Size, Jr.